Povprečni letni obseg proizvodnje na Kitajskem se je od leta 2021 do 2023 znatno povečal in dosegel 2,68 milijona ton na leto; Pričakuje se, da bo v letu 2024 še vedno zagnanih 5,84 milijona ton proizvodnih zmogljivosti. Če bo nova proizvodna zmogljivost uvedena po načrtih, se pričakuje, da se bo domača proizvodna zmogljivost PE povečala za 18,89 % v primerjavi z letom 2023. S povečanjem proizvodnih zmogljivosti domača proizvodnja polietilena kaže trend naraščanja iz leta v leto. Zaradi koncentrirane proizvodnje v regiji leta 2023 bodo letos dodani novi obrati, kot so Guangdong Petrochemical, Hainan Ethylene in Ningxia Baofeng. Stopnja rasti proizvodnje v letu 2023 je 10,12 %, leta 2024 pa naj bi dosegla 29 milijonov ton, s stopnjo rasti proizvodnje 6,23 %.
From the perspective of imports and exports, the increase in domestic supply, combined with the comprehensive impact of geopolitical patterns, regional supply and demand flows, and international freight rates, has led to a decreasing trend in the import of polyethylene resources in China. Po carinskih podatkih je na kitajskem trgu polietilena od leta 2021 do 2023 še vedno določen uvozni vrzel, odvisnost od uvoza pa je ostala med 33% in 39%. Z nenehnim povečanjem dobave domačih virov, povečanjem ponudbe izdelkov zunaj regije in intenziviranjem nasprotij ponudbe in povpraševanja v regiji še naprej rastejo pričakovanja izvoza, kar je pritegnilo vedno več pozornosti proizvodnih podjetij. However, in recent years, due to the slow recovery of overseas economies, geopolitical and other uncontrollable factors, exports have also faced a lot of pressure. However, based on the current supply and demand situation of the domestic polyethylene industry, the future trend of export-oriented development is imperative.
Navidezna stopnja rasti porabe kitajskega trga polietilena od leta 2021 do 2023 se giblje od -2,56 % do 6,29 %. In recent years, due to the slowing pace of global economic growth and the continued impact of international geopolitical tensions, international energy prices have remained high; On the other hand, high inflation and interest rate pressures have led to slow growth in major developed economies around the world, and the weak manufacturing situation worldwide is difficult to improve. Kot država izvoznica plastičnih izdelkov ima zunanje povpraševanje Kitajske pomemben vpliv. With the passage of time and the continuous strengthening of monetary policy adjustments by central banks around the world, the global inflation situation has eased, and signs of global economic recovery have begun to emerge. However, the slow growth rate is irreversible, and investors still hold a cautious attitude towards the future development trend of the economy, which has led to a slowdown in the apparent consumption growth rate of products. Pričakuje se, da bo navidezna poraba polietilena na Kitajskem v letu 2024 znašala 40,92 milijona ton, mesec dni na mesec pa 2,56%.
Čas objave: 7. avgusta 2024